Redrafting the 2023 NBA Lottery Picks

With over two full seasons of data to evaluate, some of the 2023 NBA Draft picks look like genius moves, while others have teams wondering "what if?" Here's how the lottery picks should have gone down, based on what the following players did during their rookie and sophomore years, and so far into their third seasons.

No change here, and the Spurs couldn't be happier. Wembanyama has been everything advertised and more. A generational talent who's already redefining what's possible at his size, the only thing seemingly between Wemby and greatness is his ability to stay healthy. The 7'4" phenom is averaging elite numbers on both ends while making opponents rethink their entire offensive schemes.

The Hornets nailed this pick. Miller stayed at #2, and he's rewarding their faith by averaging 22.1 points and 5.2 rebounds this season. He just looks like a future All-Star with his scoring versatility and two-way potential. Charlotte chose fit over hype with Scoot Henderson on the board, and it's paying off big time.

Here's where things get interesting. Thompson moves up one spot, proving to be an important piece in the Rockets' quick retooling process. Leading the entire class with 14.0 win shares while averaging 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, he's proving the athletic upside was real. His defensive versatility and playmaking would have been exactly what Portland needed alongside their young core.

George has been one of the most pleasant surprises of this draft class. The Rockets would gladly take him here after watching him make the All-Rookie Second Team and develop into a quality scoring guard for Utah. His shot-creation ability and scoring instincts are exactly what contending teams crave in a young guard. While the Rockets have Fred VanVleet running the point, George can play off the ball and then move to take over as floor general when VanVleet goes to the bench. 

The Pistons stick with the other Thompson twin in the redo draft. Ausar stays at #5 based on his defensive brilliance and athletic tools. He has shown flashes of being an elite defender, thanks to his length and switchability, although a blood clot issue delayed his sophomore season. The raw talent and two-way potential justify keeping him in the top five. If Thompson can continue to improve his three-point shooting percentage and attempts, he could become a top-level 3-and-D player in the league. 

Picked at 18 in real life, Jaquez made the All-Rookie First Team and has been a great focal point off the bench for Miami. Sometimes, the college guys who can just play basketball end up being better pros than the high-ceiling projects. His toughness, scoring versatility, and winning mentality would fit perfectly with Orlando's defensive identity.

One of the leading players in win shares from this class, Podziemski at 19, looked like highway robbery for Golden State. He's a winning player who excels in all aspects of the game: shooting, passing, defending, and pure grit. The Pacers would love to have his two-way contributions and basketball IQ in their rotation.

The Mavericks center helped Dallas reach the Finals as a rookie. He's exactly what you want from a modern big: rim protection, vertical spacing, and enough mobility to switch on the perimeter. Washington's frontcourt would have been transformed with Lively's presence anchoring the defense.

Wallace has been a solid contributor with strong win-share numbers. An elite two-way guard who's already contributing to winning basketball in Oklahoma City, Wallace would give Utah the perimeter defense and smart playmaking they need. 

Hendricks stays roughly where he was drafted. He's a solid piece with good defensive versatility and developing offensive skills. For a Mavericks team that reached the Finals, adding a young forward with two-way potential would have provided valuable depth.

After all of the hype entering the 2023 draft, Henderson drops eight spots in a redraft. He's averaging just 11.8 points on 41.9% shooting, and the adjustment to the NBA game has been inconsistent at best. The physical tools and competitive fire are still there, and he's young enough that this could all turn around, but for now, he has shown that the Blazers may have made yet another draft-day mistake. 

The defensive versatility is there for Orlando, even if the offense is still developing. Black drops slightly but remains in the lottery conversation thanks to his size, feel for the game, and ability to guard multiple positions. For a Thunder team loaded with shooting, his defensive talents would be valuable.

Toronto actually got this one right, even if they're taking some heat as others have blossomed. Dick showed enough flashes of shooting ability and scoring instincts to justify staying in this range. His development as a shooter gives the Raptors hope for their rebuild.

Washington's got a long-term project with intriguing two-way potential, but Coulibaly drops a few spots based on current production. His defensive tools and improving offensive game suggest upside, but he needs more time to develop. For a Pelicans team looking for wing help, the gamble on his tools makes sense.