Up and Up-and-Comer from Last Season Predicted to Have Huge Regression By ESPN Simulation

With the  2025-26 NBA season right around the corner, everyone is wondering how their team will improve from last season. One team with a lot of hype behind it is the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2019, pushing the New York Knicks to six games. Now their young squad is coming into the season hungry and with some playoff experience under their belt. 

Kevin Pelton of ESPN did a full NBA season simulation using his stats-based projections. Despite having thousands of NBA season simulations to choose from, Pelton chose simulation No. 620, “chosen because of its interesting outcomes -- from opening night to the end of the NBA Finals.”

This specific Pelton simulation wasn’t too kind to the Detroit Pistons. Detroit ended the season 36–46 and were the 12th seed in the Eastern Conference.

Last season, the Pistons ended the season 44–38 and were the sixth seed in the East. The Pistons are hoping to improve on that this season with the improvement of their young guys like Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, as well as the return of Jaden Ivey.

That’s why the results of Pelton’s simulation would be a total disaster to for the Pistons. Not making the playoffs in the Eastern Conference is pretty embarrassing. Especially because two of the top teams have injured superstars, the East should be wide open for the taking. 

The Pistons are expected to be one of the teams competing for a top playoff spot in the East, not to miss it completely. Hopefully for Pistons fans, this simulation is just a one-off, and their actual season goes a lot better.