ESPN's 2025-26 NBA Season Simulation Has Shocking Teams Make NBA Finals
Oct 15, 2025
The 2025–26 NBA season is almost here, and as always, there’s tons of anticipation. At the beginning of the season, every fan base has hope. Literally anyone could win the NBA title. That won’t stop the fans and media from trying to predict the outcomes for the season.
That’s why Kevin Pelton of ESPN did a full NBA season simulation using his stats-based projections. Despite having thousands of NBA season simulations to choose from, Peloton chose simulation No. 620, “chosen because of its interesting outcomes -- from opening night to the end of the NBA Finals.”
This simulation has some wild results, but the craziest one may be the NBA Finals matchup and the eventual 2025–26 NBA Champion.
The Conference Finals for this simulation ended up being the Golden State Warriors vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Orlando Magic vs. the New York Knicks. The simulation had the Warriors and Magic advancing to the NBA Finals.
This prediction is a bit shocking, as the Magic and Warriors have the eighth and ninth-best odds to win the NBA Finals.
And the results of the simulated Finals were….“The Warriors' magical run to their seventh Finals in the past 12 years finally ran out of gas at home in Game 7, similar to Golden State's loss to Cleveland in 2016. With Curry playing through a minor injury by the end of the season, the Warriors' potent offense operated at less than full strength. Orlando took advantage, unexpectedly winning the first championship in franchise history barely a year after upgrading their starting lineup with Bane.”
This ESPN NBA season simulation ends with the Orlando Magic winning the championship. While a Warriors vs. Magic NBA Finals with the Magic winning might not be the most likely outcome for the 2025–26 NBA season, it is definitely possible.
A simulation like this should give hope to all the semi-contenders that if everything breaks right, they too could win the NBA championship this season.
