Five Surprise Teams Poised To Contend in 2025-26

Raise your hand if you had the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals last year? Or the Dallas Mavericks in 2024? Or the Miami Heat the year before that?

Chances are not many hands are up.

Every season, there's a surprise team that comes out of nowhere and blows up our preseason predictions. And there's a strong likelihood that 2025-26 will be no different.

Here's a list of five teams that not many experts are talking about but have the potential to contend for an NBA title this year.

Let’s face it, after the Mavericks traded away Luka Dončić, everybody completely wrote them off as a contender of any kind in the near future. The return investment of Anthony Davis seemed to fall flat with fans, who was never able to stay healthy in Los Angeles. And after making the NBA Finals in 2024, the Mavericks failed to even make the playoffs last season, finishing a disappointing 39-43.

But despite Dončić not being in Dallas anymore, the surprise lottery victory got them the top pick in the draft, landing them college superstar Cooper Flagg. Most expect Flagg to make an immediate impact in his rookie season, and that, combined with the return of Kyrie Irving from an Achilles injury and a hopefully healthy Anthony Davis, could propel the Mavericks into the title picture for 2025-26.

Yes, we know; it sounds like a broken record: “Watch out for the San Antonio Spurs this year.” But this time, we mean it. Really.

The Spurs did make a leap in 2024-25, going 34-48, which was a massive improvement from their back-to-back 22-win seasons. Victor Wembanyama is also entering his third year, which is traditionally a breakout season for top picks. But there is also plenty of other young firepower around the young Frenchman, expected to develop further. The team is very high on second-year star Stephon Castle, who made the All-Rookie team last season. And the trade for Kelly Olynyk is seen as a significant move to bolster the Spurs’ depth and give Wembanyama some help by opening him up more.

There’s also the change in head coach. While the now-retired Gregg Popovich is no doubt a Hall of Famer, the team needed a young face to go with its young stars. At just 38 years old, Mitch Johnson should definitely bring a change of pace in San Antonio, working well to continue moving the youth movement forward.

Just like the Spurs, the Magic are in the middle of a youth movement that’s ready to take off and fly. They made a big leap in 2023-24, winning the most games in one year since 2011, and looked poised to jump even further in 2024-25. But injuries to stars Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs derailed their season, leading to a 41-41 finish and an early playoff exit.

The Magic are healthy entering this season, and they only bolstered their roster by trading for the Grizzlies' Desmond Bane, who gives the team the three-point threat they need. Bane is also a playmaker and can help spread the ball around to the Big 3 of Banchero, Suggs, and Franz Wagner.

With the Celtics potentially down without Jayson Tatum and a lot of question marks still surrounding Indiana and New York, the Magic have the potential to be the Cavaliers’ top challenger in the Eastern Conference in 2025-26.

The Western Conference’s attention seems to be on everyone but Memphis. The Thunder are the champs, the Nuggets have Jokić, the Rockets are now front-page news with Durant, and the Lakers will always be in the spotlight with LeBron and Dončić. So what about the team that won 48 or more games in three of the last four seasons? The early consensus is that without Desmond Bane, they will take a step back.

But the Grizzlies are still stacked with talent, even without Bane. They went 48-34 a year ago without having their best player, Ja Morant, for a quarter of the season and much of the playoffs. Zach Edey is also expected to take a big step after his rookie season, and the additions of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cole Anthony should provide the Grizzlies with some depth moving forward.

But while we hate to beat a dead horse, everything rides on Morant’s health. When he’s healthy, the Grizzlies win. And if he plays a full complement of games in 2025-26, they will win a lot.

Most saw the move of Kevin Durant to Houston as a white flag for the Phoenix Suns and the beginning of a rebuild. However, it’s quite the contrary. Durant was just not working with Devin Booker in Phoenix, and by trading the veteran star away, they landed the likes of Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. The team also acquired seven-foot center Mark Williams, who should provide significant help on defense.

The Suns lost veteran Bradley Beal to the Clippers, but his numbers over the last two seasons didn’t inspire anyone in Phoenix. After averaging well over 20 points per game with the Wizards, Beal fell well short of that plateau with the Suns. By shedding Beal and Durant and adding more depth around Booker, the Suns feel they can get back to being Western Conference contenders.