Los Angeles Lakers Have Shockingly Bad Record in ESPN's 2025-26 NBA Season Simulation

The 2025–26 NBA season is almost here! At the beginning of the season, every fan base has hope, and with a skinny Luka Doncic and a revamped roster, Lakers fans have a reason for excitement. However, will that excitement be met with a deep playoff run/NBA Championship? Or will they disappointingly come up short?

Kevin Pelton of ESPN did a full NBA season simulation using his stats-based projections. Despite having thousands of NBA season simulations to choose from, Pelton chose simulation No. 620, “chosen because of its interesting outcomes -- from opening night to the end of the NBA Finals.”

Pelton’s simulation is not based on the most likely scenario. Rather, this simulation is just one of the many different scenarios that could happen this season. 

For Lakers fans, they are hoping this specific simulation is far from reality. Pelton’s simulation has the Lakers finishing the season 36–46, good for the 13th seed in the Western Conference and narrowly missing a chance at the Play-In Tournament.

A result like this would be a complete disaster for the Lakers. When they traded for Luka Doncic last season, the messaging was clear: We want to compete for championships now and for the years to come.

Because this simulation has the Lakers not even making the playoffs, you have to wonder, did someone get a significant injury and miss time? Otherwise, purely based on talent, going 36–46 simply shouldn’t happen. Luka Doncic should be able to lead a team to at least 40 wins, if not 50.

Still, this simulation can serve as a warning. No matter how much hype a team has entering a season, they should be wary of all the different paths a long NBA season can take.