Kevin Pelton's Analysis Predicts Lakers As Sixth Best Team in the West

The Los Angeles Lakers are going to be pretty good next season. How good? Nobody knows. Luka Doncic looks like he is ready for an MVP-level season, but if Father Time finally catches up to LeBron James, the season could take a dark turn. 

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton just released his win projections for the 2025-26 NBA season. His projections are based on “player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences, then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.” 

Pelton’s win projections ultimately become the expected wins if each team experiences average health. He projects the Lakers to be the sixth-best team in the Western Conference with 45.8 wins.

“This is an annual occurrence for the Lakers, whose line benefits from their popularity, particularly in Las Vegas. On average, the Lakers have finished 5.7 wins below their total since 2013-14, the biggest gap for any team. There certainly is reason to believe the Lakers could hit the mark if Dončić plays at an MVP level in his first full season with the team. But the Lakers are far and away the league's top-heavy team, with just four players projected better than league average. The other teams with fewer than five -- the Nets, Jazz, and Wizards -- are all pegged for the lottery.”

Pelton’s projections make a lot of sense. Sure, Dončić and LeBron James look great on paper, but the rest of the Lakers' roster may fall short.

The Lakers' success next season may hinge more on the role players than their stars. Look at DeAndre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, and Marcus Smart as the three players who determine whether the Lakers fall short or surpass the projections.