Kevin Pelton's Season Projections Have Warriors Smashing Their Projected Win Total

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton just released his win projections for the 2025-26 NBA season. His projections are based on “player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences, then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time.” 

Pelton’s win projections ultimately become the expected wins if each team experiences average health. 

That’s partly why, when Pelton’s projections put the Warriors as the second-best team in the NBA for next season, it was a little shocking but not insane. If the Warriors are healthy, they certainly will be one of the best teams in the NBA. 

Here’s what Pelton said about his projections after his algorithm predicted 56.1 total wins for the Warriors:

“The Warriors might have the single most surprising projection for any team, nearly four wins clear of the non-Oklahoma City field. Having added RAPM superstar Jimmy Butler III for a full season -- they won at a 63-win clip (76.7%) with Butler in the lineup last season -- the Warriors also have 11 players who rate better than league average, tied with the Thunder for most of any team.”

ESPN Bet has the Warriors projected to win only 46.5 games. Pelton’s projections blow this number out of the water.

If the Warriors stay relatively healthy, the most likely outcome is that they will surpass the ESPN Bet projection and fall slightly short of Pelton’s. That’s because, for the Warriors, there is less of an incentive to chase wins than to enter the playoffs healthy. 

Imagine the Warriors have locked in the two- or three-seed with a couple of weeks left in the season. Will they try to run up their win total or rest their stars to enter the playoffs healthy? You can bet on them resting.