"Blue Blood Blues": What Has Happened to College Basketball's Top Programs?

Predicting the Final Four a decade or two ago used to be easy. You just pencil in Duke and North Carolina, and you were guaranteed to get at least one of those right, if not both. Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona, and Michigan State were annually in the mix, while Big East schools like Georgetown, Syracuse, and Villanova were Sweet 16 locks.

These were considered the Blue Bloods of basketball. In other words, schools that contend for national championships year in and year out with multiple titles to their name. There was no setback; they just kept reloading and were top-five programs almost every year.

If you were a top recruit, you’d get a visit from a name like Krzyzewski, Calipari, Pitino, Wright, Boeheim, Izzo, or Thompson, all of whom used to coach some of those schools above. It seemed like all the other schools didn’t stand a chance against college basketball’s greats.

But those days are now long gone. Duke is still a powerhouse, and Kansas has its moments, but new Blue Bloods have emerged, such as Houston, Gonzaga, UConn, and Auburn. Parity has replaced popularity. Two years ago, Florida Atlantic and San Diego State made the Final Four. Last year, football schools like Florida and Auburn were among the best teams in the country. 

So what has caused the Blue Blood programs to take a step back? Here are three reasons why it’s been “Out with the old, in with the new” in college basketball.

Duke and North Carolina used to be about Mike Krzyzewski against Dean Smith or Roy Williams. John Scheyer has done a good job keeping Duke among the nation’s best, but it seems North Carolina has fallen off the map. Despite a hot run in 2022 as a No. 8 seed, making it to the Finals where they lost to Kansas, the magic is gone in Chapel Hill. Since Hubert Davis took over in 2021, UNC has had just one tournament where they were better than an eight-seed. In 2023, they didn’t even make the tournament. More people are now talking about Bill Belichick in Carolina than basketball.

Other coaching changes have left Blue Bloods programs in decline. Kentucky no longer has Calipari, and as a result, they no longer contend for Final Fours. Ever since Jay Wright left Villanova, the program has been a shell of its former self. Age seems to be getting the best of Izzo, who hasn’t been to a national title game in 15 years. And seeing Syracuse without Boeheim just feels odd. 

Bill Self has done a decent job keeping Kansas relevant, earning a slew of No.1 seeds, but since 2011, they’ve made just two Final Fours.

Just like in college football, the transfer portal has thrown the sport upside down. Recruiting doesn’t take as much importance as it does scouring the portal, as hundreds of players seem to be out there every year. Instead of going to the best coach and opportunity, it’s about heading to where the money and endorsements are. 

The old-school coaches have struggled to deal with this, as we live in a new age. This has resulted in more parity, with new schools emerging as contenders every season. Over the last three years, there have been 12 schools to appear in the Final Four, and only UConn can say they’ve been there more than once. A lot of that has been because of Danny Hurley, who has done not just an incredible job recruiting but also stealing blue-chippers from other schools.

In the ‘80s and ‘90s, college basketball was more like college football–players stayed at least two years before turning pro. Under Mike Krzyzewski, you would never see a player enter the NBA draft until after their senior year.

That’s no longer the case. Kentucky may have a class of star freshmen one year, but the next, they are trying to replace all of them. As soon as a top talent walks in the door, they are planning their exit strategy and marketing themselves for the NBA Draft. Thus, a program just can’t get any traction.

More turnover means more off-years. Some schools that aren’t traditional contenders are able to retain veteran talent more often than the Blue Bloods. Thus, you get years where San Diego State and Miami surprise everyone and make a Final Four.